In October 2014, the Applied Precognition Project (APP) began Project Firefly, a yearlong effort to “create wealth aggressively” using Associative Remote Viewing (ARV) and the Kelly wagering method.
To be successful, the Kelly wagering method required performance significantly above the 50 percent random rate. To break even required a successful prediction rate—or hit rate—of least a 55 percent, per the “Assets Growth Simulation” made during Firefly preparations. APP had reported a hit rate of 62 percent in 2014 and a 60 percent rate over 259 trials in the preceding twenty-two months.
Instead of holding steady or rising, however, Firefly’s hit rate plunged to 48 percent. When the project halted in December 2015—177 trades and 14 months after it began—only $4,114 remained of $56,300 invested by 62 members.
Although Project Firefly was unsuccessful on a financial level, it offers a window into the unique activities of a large group of dedicated people spread across the globe that worked hard to achieve a common goal by applying intuition, logic, mathematics, and science.
Its initiators viewed Project Firefly as a private financial investment project drawing on
the existing structure and activities of an established group, the Applied Precognition Project. These initiators did not consider or set this up as a formal scientific experiment. Therefore, it was never their intention to produce a formal write up of the project outside of fulfilling their obligations to investors. However, the writers and contributors of this paper, including several other key project participants, feel it is important to create a historical record of that which was
initiated, attempted, discovered, and experienced. What lessons can be learned?
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