Psi Effects as a Result of Implicit Expectations About Probabilities – Investigating Micro-PK with a Biased Baseline

Abstract

This pilot study investigated micro-psychokinesis (micro-PK) effects using a masked coin toss game with biased base-rate probabilities. It was assumed that participants’ expectation of fair coin tosses would exhibit a micro-PK effect with empirical mean scores deviating from the base-rates towards a 50% winning probability. Participants were assigned to either a ‘lucky’ condition with a pre-set 60% baseline win probability or an ‘unlucky’ condition with a pre-set 40% baseline win probability. In both conditions, a micro-PK biasing effect towards 50% was expected. Individuals’ game outcomes were determined by a quantum random number generator (qRNG). Bayesian analysis revealed strong micro-PK effects towards 50% in the ‘lucky’ group but no effects in the ‘unlucky’ group. The results obtained in the ‘lucky’ group indicate that aligning outcomes with participants’ probabilistic expectations may support micro-PK performance and potentially prevent decline effects. In contrast to our hypothesis, in the ‘unlucky’ group, null findings were obtained. Post hoc analyses suggest emotional detachment as a potential moderator of the findings. Further replication is necessary to validate these findings.